Great simplification pulsing lines

Ep 124  |  Levke Caesar

Levke Caesar: “Oceanic Slowdown: Decoding the AMOC”

Check out this podcast

TGS124 Levke Caesar The Great Simplification

Show Summary

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate physicist Levke Caesar for a comprehensive overview of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its connections to broader planetary systems. Amid a complex and heavily interconnected climate system, the AMOC is a powerful force for regulating temperature between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres along the Atlantic Ocean – yet it’s estimated to have slowed down by about 15% over the last few decades. What are the possible domino effects of this slowing oceanic powerhouse at a regional and global scale? How well do we understand what drives the AMOC, its cyclical patterns, and connections with other currents? More importantly, how does the AMOC interact with other biospheric mechanisms that have shaped our stable, life-supporting planetary home?

About Levke Caesar

Levke Caesar is a climate physicist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, mainly known for her studies on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and its pivotal role in the climate system. Her research primarily focuses on the past, present, and future evolution of the AMOC and its intricate interactions within the North Atlantic region. Caesar’s seminal work on the historical evolution of the AMOC has been featured in prestigious journals such as Nature and Nature Geoscience, garnering hundreds of citations. Since October 2023, she has assumed the role of scientific lead for the newly launched Planetary Boundary Science Initiative (PBScience) at PIK.

In French, we have a motto that says that a simple drawing is often better than a long explanation. Jean-Marc Jancovici Carbone 4 President

That’s very understandable because with left atmosphere thinking, one of the problems is that you see everything as a series of problems that must have solutions. Iain McGilchrist Neuroscientist and Philosopher

We can’t have hundreds and hundreds of real relationships that are healthy because that requires time and effort and full attention and awareness of being in real relationship and conversation with the other human. Nate Hagens Director of ISEOF

This is the crux of the whole problem. Individual parts of nature are more valuable than the biocomplexity of nature. Thomas Crowther Founder Restor

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

00:00 – Levke Caesar, Potsdam Institute

SLIDES USED IN THIS EPISODE

What is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation?

04:27 – What are ocean currents? 

05:40 – What drives the AMOC*

07:39 – Paleoclimatology of the AMOC
08:00 – Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

08:27 – Henry Stommel

11:07 – AMOC slow down

13:26 – The AMOC engine is strongest in the winter

15:44 – The Ocean and the water cycle

16:25 – How we’re changing ocean salinity

17:50 – Greenland Ice sheet melting

18:13 – Ocean Stratification

18:36 – Aerosol Forcing, TGS Episode

18:55 – Aerosol forcing and the AMOC

20:25 – Potential for an AMOC collapse

21:53 – Climate Change scenarios

25:05 – How the jet stream affects weather patterns

25:18 – How AMOC and the jet stream interact

27:23 – Ocean has absorbed 90% of excess heat

31:28 – Other ocean currents

31:38 – Peter Ward, Under a Green Sky, Canfield Ocean + TGS Episode

35:22 – Oceans will eventually outgas carbon and heat

38:05 – Increase in winter storms over Europe with AMOC slowdown

38:45 – AMOC slowdown would mean sea level rise for the US

39:18 – Coriolis Effect

41:11 – The Day After Tomorrow

49:49 – First measurements of the AMOC

51:51 – 2004 continuous measurements of the AMOC, RAPID AMOC

52:54 – AMOC and the Gulf Stream

56:13 – How Climate Change affects wind patterns

56:55 – AMOC domino effect

58:33 – Twilight Zone

1:06:21 – Planetary Boundaries

1:06:48 – Most impactful climate actions for individuals

1:11:20 – Geoengineering doesn’t seem promising

1:13:42 – Plant-based diet and health, The EAT-Lancet Commission on Food, Planet, Health

1:14:24 – India planning to double coal production

Download transcript
Back to episodes
Rod SchoonoverThe National Security Risks We’re Not Prepared ForWith Rod SchoonoverThe Great SimplificationEp 183 | Rod Schoonover

National security concerns have been the invisible hand guiding governance throughout recorded history. In the 20th century, it was defined by a country versus country dynamic: whichever nation was the strongest and most strategic was also the safest. But today, our biggest national security threats don’t come from opposing nations – they are “actorless threats” that emerge from the breakdown of the complex systems we all depend on – from the stability of our planetary systems to our intricately complex and fragile global supply chains. In this unprecedented landscape, what is required of us in order to keep our citizens safe?

Watch nowJun 18, 2025
Movie Re-ReleaseThe Systems Science Behind Our Global CrisesWith Nate HagensThe Great SimplificationEp 182 | Nate Hagens

Three years ago, my team and I created a 30-minute movie that provides a comprehensive systems analysis of the human predicament—spanning energy, economics, ecology, and behavioral psychology. This beautifully animated film aims to help viewers understand the interconnected crises defining our era.

Watch nowJun 13, 2025
Globalization End GameHelena Norberg-Hodge HeadshotGlobalization End GameWith Helena Norberg-HodgeThe Great SimplificationEp 181 | Helena Norberg-Hodge

Over the last few decades, humanity has globalized everything – from food production and supply chains to communication and information systems – making countries, businesses, and individuals more connected and reliant on each other than ever before. Yet, with this increased interconnectedness comes more complexity and fragility. What have we lost through the globalization process, and how might we fortify our communities by investing in local economies?

Watch nowJun 11, 2025

Subscribe to our Substack

Please enable JavaScript in your browser to complete this form.

The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future (ISEOF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit corporation, founded in 2008, that conducts research and educates the public about energy issues and their impact on society.

Support our work
Get in touch
x