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Ep 132  |  Daniel Schmachtenberger

Daniel Schmachtenberger: “Silicon Dreams and Carbon Nightmares: The Wide Boundary Impacts of AI”

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TGS132 Daniel Schmachtenberger The Great Simplification

Show Summary

Artificial intelligence has been advancing at a break-neck pace. Accompanying this is an almost frenzied optimism that AI will fix our most pressing global problems, particularly when it comes to the hype surrounding climate solutions.

In this episode, Daniel Schmachtenberger joins Nate to take a wide-boundary look at the true environmental risks embedded within the current promises of artificial intelligence. He demonstrates that the current trajectory of AI’s impact is headed towards ecological destruction, rather than restoration… an important narrative currently missing from the discourse surrounding AI at large. 

What are the environmental implications of a tool with unbound computational capabilities aimed towards goals of relentless growth and extraction? How could artificial intelligence play into the themes of power and greed, intensifying inequalities and accelerating the fragmentation of society? What role could AI play under a different set of values and expectations for the future that are in service to the betterment of life?

We encourage you to explore the resources and research from The Civilization Research Institute on artificial intelligence compiled in this document.

About Daniel Schmachtenberger

Daniel Schmachtenberger is a founding member of The Consilience Project, aimed at improving public sensemaking and dialogue. 

The throughline of his interests has to do with ways of improving the health and development of individuals and society, with a virtuous relationship between the two as a goal.

Towards these ends, Daniel has a particular interest in catastrophic and existential risk, with focuses on civilization collapse and institutional decay. His work also includes an analysis of progress narratives, collective action problems, and social organization theories. These themes are all connected through close study of the relevant domains in philosophy and science.

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

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Civilization Research Institute Resources to Learn more on AI → PDF + Live Document

00:00 – Daniel Schmachtenberger info + Bend Not Break series, Prior episode on Artificial Intelligence, Episode on Naive Progress + Paper on Naive Progress

01:30 – Tristan Harris, TGS Episode

04:47 – Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning

07:22 – AI’s ability to make oil extraction more efficient, 92% of oil companies in contract with AI companies

08:09 – NVIDIA providing chips to big energy, Microsoft contracts with oil companies

09:23 – AI has been used in fission for a long time, but no evidence of huge breakthroughs

11:32 – AI and defense

11:42 – Precision targeting, comprehensive battle planning, intelligence systems and AI
12:08 – AI in law enforcement

12:24 – AI in education, tutors

12:34 – AI and elderly care

12:10 – NVIDIA market cap, top ten market cap companies are in AI

14:10 – AI marketing and lobbying power

14:18 – Where Arguments Come From

16:06 – OpenAI History

16:50 – Concerns about AI automation

17:09 – Acceleration of trivial AI development companies

18:57 – Clip of top AI leaders saying the AI will kill everyone

21:20 – Motivated Reasoning

22:31 – Brain-computer neural interface, Nick Bostrom

22:57 – Ted Chu, Human Purpose and Transhuman Potential: A Cosmic Vision of Our Future Evolution

25:03 – David Pearce, Abolitionist Project

26:26 – Bootloader

27:22 – Nick Land, Ray Kurzweil

27:50 – Alex Karp, Palantir

29:59 – Zak Stein, TGS Episode

31:44 – Eliezer Yudkowsky

33:14 – ChatGPT on how to wipe out humanity

35:01 – China’s military drill near Taiwan

35:08 – Operation Hellscape

35:48 – Anduril, integrated automated kill webs

38:35 – Ubiquitous Technological Surveillance

38:52 – Wifi routers designed to monitor people’s locations in their homes

40:02 – Internet of Things

40:33 – Planet Labs

40:40 – Increasing spatial recognition from satellites

42:56 – Moore’s Law compared to GPU growth

46:33 – Energy consumption of AI

47:33 – Bloomberg on data center energy consumption

48:50 – Massive data centers that are beyond energy grid capacity

51:17 – Material, water, and land use requirements for data centers

52:16 – Microsoft commitments to be 100% renewable by 2030 fall through because of AI 

53:02 – Jevons Paradox

53:10 – Since 1996 we’ve increased efficiency 36% but increased 63% increase in energy use

53:27 – Rebound effect vs Backfire effect

55:51 – Growth in renewables has not hampered growth of fossil fuels

57:02 – Gini Coefficient

57:43 – First paper on climate change published in 1938

58:12 –  Trillions of dollars in climate change funding

58:41 – Only dips in fossil fuel use comes from recessions

1:02:35 – Janine Benyus

1:04:18 – Fusion development dates keep getting pushed back

1:05:35 – Humans and microgravity aren’t a good mix

1:08:10 – How AI will simply increase economic activity and it’s subsequent externalities
1:09:27 – 16 trillions dollars per year to internalize the externalized cost of PFAS

1:12:31 – NVIDIA the most profitable company in the world, PwC’s Global Artificial Intelligence Study, Elon on Tesla profitability with AI

1:14:25 – “Peak Oil, AI, and the Straw” | Frankly #56

1:17:42 – Treaty preventing arctic drilling

1:20:44 – As people by more organic food, more pesticide is used every year

1:20:48 – As more people eat vegan food every year, total factory farming continues to go up

1:22:39 – Moloch

1:24:31 – How AI could centrally plan the economy

1:31:01 – There are lots of types of AI

1:32:55 – Precautionary Principle

1:44:14 – Energy is 5% of the S&P

1:45:22 – Daniel Schmachtenberger: “A Vision for Betterment” | The Great Simplification 126

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