Ep 4 | Chuck Watson
Chuck Watson “From MAD to NUTS: Risk, Nukes, & Climate Change”
On this episode we meet with risk expert and consultant, Chuck Watson.
Watson analyzes the types of risk we face in the modern world – from climate change to nuclear arms – and how the decisions of experts help us from plunging into the abyss. How do humans manage our instincts to over-react to risks we recently experienced with high-consequence, low-probability situations?
Further, Watson explores the role of human agency in risk analysis. How are humans smart enough to build dangerous systems, but unable to manage the same systems? He looks at how building stronger governance systems will allow humans to overcome our current predicament.
About Chuck Watson
Chuck Watson is the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction
Enki’s models and their outputs are used by governments around the world such as the US Government (NASA, Defense Department, State Department, EPA), the States of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Hawaii, as well as the insurance industry and UN Agencies. Chuck has been a frequent guest on NPR, CNBC, and Bloomberg News providing expert perspectives on the economic impacts of natural and anthropogenic hazards.
In French, we have a motto that says that a simple drawing is often better than a long explanation. Jean-Marc Jancovici Carbone 4 President
That’s very understandable because with left atmosphere thinking, one of the problems is that you see everything as a series of problems that must have solutions. Iain McGilchrist Neuroscientist and Philosopher
We can’t have hundreds and hundreds of real relationships that are healthy because that requires time and effort and full attention and awareness of being in real relationship and conversation with the other human. Nate Hagens Director of ISEOF
This is the crux of the whole problem. Individual parts of nature are more valuable than the biocomplexity of nature. Thomas Crowther Founder Restor
Show Notes & Links to Learn More
Download transcript02:35 – The Oil Drum
05:33 – Risk Homeostasis
08:32 – The Challenger
09:02 – Low risk/high consequences
09:44 – NOAA list of billion dollar consequences
11:40 – Risk singularity
13:11 – How climate change and nuclear war mesh
13:30 – Current events in Ukraine
13:54 – Cuban Missile Crisis
14:15 – No First Use Policy and the US
17:06 – B61-12 Weapons
17:49 – MAD – Mutually Assured Destruction
18:30 – NUTS – Nuclear Utilization Targeting Strategy
21:01 – Hypersonic Weapon
28:38 – Russian weapons programs
22:40 – Earth day talk – 1:52:31
22:53 – Geophysical Hazards
23:45 – Unsustainable economic growth
24:27 – Risks of nuclear exchange
25:50 – Able Archer incident
28:07 – 60% chance of nuclear war over the last 50 years
31:39 – Brain mismatch with ancestral environment
33:45 – Carl Sagan Nuclear Winter Studies 1970s
36:30 – System’s Synthesis
45:42 – Dick Gephardt on the Iraq war
47:45 – Humans prefer certainty
50:13 – Hillary Clinton and reset button
51:30 – Putin on the collapse of the soviet union
55:45 – Joint chiefs of staff no longer in the chain of command
1:02:16 – Earth Day Talk Interventions
1:07:02 – Roman census and negative power
1:15:16 – How to choose good news sources
1:20:03 – In-group/Out-group
1:25:40 – Superorganism
Update from 11/13/2025: Key historical records about the incident during the Reagan administration, known as the Able Archer 83 War Scare, were removed without explanation.
