Ep 188 | Lyn Alden
Nothing Can Stop This Train: Our Financial Predicament From a Systems Perspective
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The Great Simplification
Description
Money, debt, and finance shape the lives of everyone globally, including through the policies and actions of national central banks – yet even those who are well-versed in these subjects often miss the full scope of these intricate relationships. For the average person, headlines about mounting government debt and surging interest rates often feel like a confusing and concerning trend. What can we learn from historical cycles, global energy dynamics, and the differing fiscal strategies of nations about the trajectory of the world economy?
In today’s episode, Nate is joined once more by Lyn Alden for a deeper exploration of the intricate relationships between fiscal dominance, rising levels of debt, and the role of energy in shaping our current financial realities. Lyn explains how a historical analysis shines light on the gaps in economic theories like Keynesianism and Modern Monetary Theory, and what the implications are for our present situation. Using this perspective, they discuss recent trends in Bitcoin, Stablecoins, and Artificial Intelligence – and what further developments in these areas might mean for average people in developed and developing countries alike.
How can a deeper understanding of these dynamics prepare us for the economic challenges ahead? What lessons can we draw from past instances when public debt reached unsustainable levels? And as governments attempt to navigate familiar problems with new approaches, how might individuals prepare for the acceleration of this unstoppable train as we head into an increasingly uncertain future?
In French, we have a motto that says that a simple drawing is often better than a long explanation. Jean-Marc Jancovici Carbone 4 President
That’s very understandable because with left atmosphere thinking, one of the problems is that you see everything as a series of problems that must have solutions. Iain McGilchrist Neuroscientist and Philosopher
We can’t have hundreds and hundreds of real relationships that are healthy because that requires time and effort and full attention and awareness of being in real relationship and conversation with the other human. Nate Hagens Director of ISEOF
This is the crux of the whole problem. Individual parts of nature are more valuable than the biocomplexity of nature. Thomas Crowther Founder Restor
Show Notes & Links to Learn More
00:00 – Lyn Alden, Broken Money
01:55 – “Nothing stops this train.” (Breaking Bad spoilers!)
03:00 – U.S. Fiscal Deficit
03:51 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance
06:34 – Lyn Alden on fiscal dominance + public vs private debt creation comparison, U.S. Public Debt Composition, Making Sense of Private Debt, 2020 global debt surge (broken down public vs private)
08:12 – Approaching fiscal dominance again in the U.S.?
08:45 – The Hindsight Depression (comparison between current economic situation and the 1930s), COVID-19 Policies Drive National Debt
10:05 – Great Depression causes: telecommunication systems development, money transfers, The Speed of Transactions vs Settlements (ledgers + money system centralization)
10:41 – Money and the Mechanism of Exchange by William Stanley Jevons
13:42 – (Credit) Bubbles
13:57 – Banking Panics of 1930-31
14:33 – Ray Dalio’s Long Term Debt Cycle,
16:30 – Total debt compared to base dollars
18:00 – Monetary Base (“base dollars”)
19:10 – Austrian school of economics, comprehensive explainer on marginal analysis
20:35 – Keynesian economics
21:40 – Modern Monetary Theory, fiat currency
23:30 – 1971 official end of Bretton Woods system
26:00 – Permian Basin, state of Permian Basin production, Shale and tight oil in Canada
27:32 – Bank lending rates in 1970s and 80s, life cycle of baby boomers dictating credit cycles
29:15 – Workers vs Social Security beneficiaries, U.S. population growth rates slowing, global population growth trends
30:05 – 2023 bond market look
31:15 – Invisible devaluation got us out of the 1940s when we faced similar problems
31:38 – Yield curve control technique
32:44 – Closer look at Japan’s yield curve control
33:22 – UK gilt crisis 2022
34:10 – 2020 Fed discussed doing yield curve control
36:42 – Metacrisis, Daniel Schmachtenberger – an introduction to the Metacrisis,
37:15 – Peak Oil and the Immediate Fallacy, peak oil demand IEA 2024, Reuters article about IEA findings
38:15 – Peak oil November 2018, Red Queen Effect, TGS about peak oil with Arthur Berman
38:40 – EV Batteries 101, EV battery supply chain, Components of EVs, EV energy requirements and efficiency
39:22 – Household consumption and financial crisis
39:50 – Universal Basic Income
41:30 – Automation of blue collar manufacturing work, Goldman Sachs: AI and effect on GDP/employment, McKinsey & Co study on industrial automation
43:25 – What is cryptocurrency? What is Bitcoin?
45:00 – Jevons’ Paradox
45:35 – Computer Systems Established, Maintained and Trusted by Mutually Suspicious Groups – David Lee Chaum, 1979/1982
45:50 – History of cybersecurity and cryptographic standards, cryptographic algorithms we use today, national bandwidths and the international digital divide
46:55 – Egodeath capital
47:50 – Offshore banking, stablecoins
51:06 – Biggest users of Circle’s USDC stablecoin are non-Americans
52:18 – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on stablecoin adding $2 trillion to the U.S. Treasury
54:22 – Currencies linked to the US dollar
59:03 – Michael Hartnett from Bank of America on US Debt projection
01:00:14 – Total value of all bitcoin is about .3% of global capital
01:08:06 – Gantt chart and critical path method
01:12:50 – The Economic Superorganism
01:13:50 – U.S. and energy independence
01:14:18 – “Bend not Break” TGS with Daniel Schmachtenberger
01:14:40 – Japan’s high government debt
01:15:31 – U.S. running towards high deficit spending
01:16:11 – World’s major trade blocs
01:16:28 – How EU countries responded to Russia-induced gas crisis
01:17:04 – Japan’s strong manufacturing and engineering foundation, more on Japan’s economy
01:17:55 – Chinese Belt and Road Initiative
01:20:02 – 2024 Egypt EIA analysis/figures
01:21:00 – Egypt GDP per capita
01:21:30 – Egypt New Administrative Capital city
01:21:41 – Egypt nuclear energy projects
01:21:44 – Egypt natural gas crisis due to Middle-East conflict, attempts at solar expansion
01:22:15 – Egypt electricity production from oil sources
01:22:35 – Egypt money supply growth
01:22:55 – Suez Canal
01:23:20 – Egypt rolling blackouts
01:23:30 – Egypt telecommunications networks, Egypt Internet speed
01:24:21 – Nigeria and stablecoins, Sub-Saharan Africa + crypto adoption, low Bitcoin adoption in Egypt, Egyptians storing value in physical U.S. Dollars
01:25:45 – Egyptian real estate development and economic role
01:29:30 – Popularity of Chinese EVs in Egypt
01:30:00 – China is now the largest car exporter in the world (2023)
01:32:00 – Egypt access to AC/cooling (page 14), Egypt wet bulb temperature
01:32:50 – Egypt long-time water shortage issues, Ethiopia’s new dam project sparks tensions over Nile water rights
01:33:24 – Desalination
01:34:00 – Frankly on energy blindness
01:34:30 – Critical minerals and materials, China’s monopoly on these
