Ep 161 | Scott Tinker
Scott Tinker: “The Uncertain Future of Oil: Energy Poverty, Depletion, and ‘Green’ Ambitions”
Show Summary
Human consumption of fossil fuels – especially oil – is a topic filled with complexity, tension, and uncertainty. Understanding this issue requires accounting for a wide range of factors – from dynamic global markets and widely dispersed reserves to ongoing innovation and geopolitical conflicts. Attempting to navigate this intricate landscape is no easy task. But in the midst of these challenges, are there fundamental truths about the future of energy that experts can agree on?
Today, Nate is joined by geologist and energy expert, Scott Tinker, to delve into the complexities of global oil supply and demand, the concept of peak oil, and the future possibilities of energy production and transition. Together, they explore the decline rates of oil reservoirs, the physics behind oil extraction, and the role of technology in oil production.
Can nations strike a balance between energy security, geopolitical considerations, and the pursuit of a “clean” energy future? How solid are concepts like peak oil demand in a world still grappling with energy poverty? And perhaps most crucially, why is it essential to foster open dialogue and educate the public on these issues, so that we can all play an informed role in shaping our energy future?
About Scott Tinker
Dr. Scott W. Tinker is a global energy explorer and educator bringing industry, government, academia, and nongovernmental organizations together to address major societal challenges in energy, the environment, and the economy. Following a 17-year career in the energy industry, Scott spent 24 years as an Endowed Professor and Director of the 250-person Bureau of Economic Geology at UT Austin. He is CEO of Tinker Energy Associates and Chairman and CEO of the nonprofit Switch Energy Alliance. With Director Harry Lynch, Scott co-produced and is featured in the award-winning documentary films Switch and Switch On, screened to millions of viewers globally. Scott is also the host of Energy Switch, an energy and climate point-counterpoint show on PBS.
In French, we have a motto that says that a simple drawing is often better than a long explanation. Jean-Marc Jancovici Carbone 4 President
That’s very understandable because with left atmosphere thinking, one of the problems is that you see everything as a series of problems that must have solutions. Iain McGilchrist Neuroscientist and Philosopher
We can’t have hundreds and hundreds of real relationships that are healthy because that requires time and effort and full attention and awareness of being in real relationship and conversation with the other human. Nate Hagens Director of ISEOF
This is the crux of the whole problem. Individual parts of nature are more valuable than the biocomplexity of nature. Thomas Crowther Founder Restor
Show Notes & Links to Learn More
00:00 – Scott Tinker info + work, Bureau of Economic Geology, Switch Energy Alliance, Energy Switch talk show
Films: ‘Switch’ + ‘Switch On’
Talks: TedX + Alliance for Responsible Citizenship
05:50 – Fossil energy represented *81.5% of global primary energy in 2023 + data source
06:38 – Introduction to the formation of oil, coal and natural gas
07:48 – 2024 ExxonMobil Global Outlook
08:25 – American Association of Petroleum Geologists
10:00 – Produced water
11:47 – Oil formation
13:28 – Global oil production
14:26 – Largest oil production companies 2023
16:35 – The US produces more oil than any country ever
16:47 – More than *1.5 million oil and gas-related holes in Texas
16:56 – Oil wells in Mexico
17:42 – Seismic exploration
18:18 – World oil map + oil resources by country + oil reserves by country
19:22 – Tectonic plate video
20:27 – Oil classification: resources vs reserves
21:21 – Unconventional oil and gas
21:26 – Shale oil + shale oil production in the US + shale reserves by country
21:46 – Rate of decline of shale oil production + more info
25:04 – New oil and gas production technologies
25:57 – Peak oil
26:52 – M. King Hubbert + peak oil theory
27:31 – US oil production over time
27:52 – Technically recoverable shale oil and gas
28:33 – Different uses of oil
30:21 – Different uses of natural gas
32:16 – Price of oil in Europe
34:03 – International Energy Agency (IEA) on peak demand
34:59 – Oil production in China
35:18 – Belt and Road Initiative
35:33 – China’s control of global metal & mineral markets
36:28 – Material requirements of ‘renewable’ technologies
37:45 – Energy density of different energy sources
39:34 – China controls the processing of *over 85% of rare earth minerals
40:36 – 2024 global Electric Vehicle (EV) market + price of EVs in China vs US
41:07 – IEA outlook for China’s oil demand
45:23 – Global primary energy consumption by source since 1800
45:35 – Intro to coal
46:01 – History of oil
46:54 – History of natural gas
51:19 – Russia allegedly involved in anti-fracking movement
52:14 – The use of nuclear + hydrogen + compressed natural gas for transport
54:17 – Global debt visualisation
55:54 – Nate’s PhD paper: Towards an Applied Net Energy Framework
57:35 – US debt
58:35 – EU gas imports
59:33 – Global access to energy
59:54 – Switch case competition
1:00:53 – Per capita energy consumption by country + GDP vs energy use per capita
1:04:04 – Air pollution by economy + clean water
1:08:22 – Rebound effect + more info
1:09:24 – Lazard’s levelized cost of energy
1:11:37 – Energy density of nuclear energy + nuclear energy and the environment
1:14:22 – IPCC AR6 working group 1 + table 12.12
1:16:43 – Emissions from the permafrost + wetlands
1:23:09 – Nuclear power projections
1:24:09 – Energy consumption of big tech + big tech driving a nuclear power revival
1:24:48 – Nuclear power in the world today
1:27:18 – Grace Stanke + PBS Episode
