Unintended Consequences in a Complex World

In this week’s Frankly, Nate considers the ways in which our social species overvalues false-confidence rather than the more honest and inquisitive response of “I don’t know.” He invites us to consider the science behind this cultural bias towards certainty: from our biological response from the stress of “not knowing” to the reinforcing effects of motivated reasoning that ensnares even the smartest among us (especially the smartest among us).

In this week’s Frankly, Nate reflects on the multiple metaphors brought to mind via a single photograph, which depicts a sloth climbing a barbed wire fence in Costa Rica. Beyond evoking compassion for a species that’s on the receiving end of human intervention into its ecosystem, the image raises larger ideas about the response of animals, including humans, to artificial cues and novel environments. Just as the sloth mistakes a fence post for the safety of a tree, modern humans mistake consumption, speed, and certainty for meaning.

In this week’s Frankly, Nate returns from New York City Climate Week with fresh reflections on the disconnect between our economic narratives and biophysical realities. Using his background in finance, Nate observes that while the prioritization of financial abstractions and claims continue to accelerate, with gold and silver prices reaching record-setting highs, the ledger is being balanced with parallel declines in our planetary health and social resilience. This tradeoff is harder and harder to ignore as newly crossed planetary boundaries continue alerting us to the fact that we are operating outside of our Earth’s ability to maintain biospheric stability.