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Ep 152  |  Helen Thompson

Helen Thompson: “Energy Crises & Global Power Shifts: The Struggle for Stability in Israel, Iran, and Beyond”

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TGS152 Helen Thompson The Great Simplification

(Conversation recorded on November 11th, 2024, prior to a ceasefire declared between Israel and Lebanon on November 27th, 2024)

Show Summary

If you’ve followed TGS for some time, you’ve heard Nate speak about The 5 Horsemen – the biggest risks for humans and civilization in the coming decade. Today’s episode delves into one of the most rapidly escalating: geopolitics. 

Today, Nate is joined by Political Economy Professor Helen Thompson to explore the evolving understanding of energy’s role in international relations, particularly in the context of recent conflicts in the Middle East. They discuss the challenge of anticipating the volatile changes in energy supplies, the complexities of navigating information in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, and the role of global powers like BRICS and OPEC.

How will resource conflicts continue to shape the long-standing tensions in the Middle East? What would a transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar world mean for the global geopolitical landscape and its energy implications? Given how connected these issues are to the delicate balance of our world, how can we increase awareness and preparation for future crises?

About Helen Thompson

Helen Thompson has been Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge since 1994. Her current research concentrates on the political economy of energy and the long history of the democratic, economic, and geopolitical disruptions of the twenty-first century. She is a regular panelist on Talking Politics and a columnist for the New Statesman. She is a co-presenter of UnHerd’s podcast, These Times, and recently published Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century.

In French, we have a motto that says that a simple drawing is often better than a long explanation. Jean-Marc Jancovici Carbone 4 President

That’s very understandable because with left atmosphere thinking, one of the problems is that you see everything as a series of problems that must have solutions. Iain McGilchrist Neuroscientist and Philosopher

We can’t have hundreds and hundreds of real relationships that are healthy because that requires time and effort and full attention and awareness of being in real relationship and conversation with the other human. Nate Hagens Director of ISEOF

This is the crux of the whole problem. Individual parts of nature are more valuable than the biocomplexity of nature. Thomas Crowther Founder Restor

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

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00:00 – Helen Thomspon info + works, prior TGS Episode

01:30 – Russian IRBM missile

03:52 – Russian invasion of Ukraine + impact on global energy landscape

04:19 – Middle East crisis 

05:17 – Risk Homeostasis

06:00 – World’s recoverable oil reserves + in the Middle East

06:55 – Red Sea disruptions and oil flows + world oil transit chokepoints

07:00 – China’s weak oil demand

07:14 – China’s energy transition + more info

07:38 – Israel oil imports + more info

07:49 – Turkey and Azerbaijan-Israel oil trade

08:52 – 2019 attack on Saudi oil facilities

09:57 – Israel assures it will not attack Iranian oil or nuclear sites

10:37 – Gulf states’ airspace needed for Israeli attack on Iran

11:22 – Putin’s mockery of US after Saudi oil facility attack

11:33 – World’s top oil producers

11:47 – Assassination of Qasem Soleimani

12:39 – Saudi-Iranian rapprochement + more info

13:26 – Israel’s new defense minister

14:10 – Gallant’s critique of Netenyahu’s attack on Iran

14:38 – Gallant on conscription

16:41 – Israel government coalition + more info

17:00 – Divided Israeli politics

17:40 – Conscription in Israel + Haredi men

18:14 – Conscription in Russia + ethnic minorities

19:37 – Vietnam War draft

21:50 – Podcast: These Times

24:09 – Nord Stream pipelines sabotage + Andromeda yacht

27:58 – Public opinion towards Israel in Europe + in US

28:30 – European energy crisis

29:00 – European countries reopen power stations to burn more coal

29:50 – European LNG market developments

33:22 – Trump encourages Israel to target Iran’s nuclear sites

33:40 – Trump’s criticisms against John Bolton

34:11 – Iran sanctions under Trump administration

34:40 – Iran’s oil exports to China and US sanctions

35:00 – European special payment systems to bypass US sanctions on Iran

35:14 – Recent trends in Iran’s oil exports + Iran’s oil production

35:42 – Trump and oil prices

36:44 – The Strait of Hormuz as an oil chokepoint + more info + Frankly

39:20 – Energy consumption of AI

40:39 – US energy independence

40:42 – Shale oil accounts for *64% of US oil production, production decline for shale oil + more info 

41:11 – Growth in oil production in Iran + Iraq

43:01 – Depletion of the Permian Basin

44:15 – The potential for shale oil production in Russia

45:00 – Arctic LNG 2 sanctions

45:39 – Amazon tipping to Savannah

46:00 – BRICS represents *45% of global population and 35% of GDP

46:17 – BRICS countries control *approx 43% of global oil production

46:32 – Sunni-Shia divide

48:29 – OPEC+

50:35 – The creation of Great Britain

53:50 – History of US oil production

54:14 – Oil and geopolitics in the 1970s 

54:28 – Oil price crash and the collapse of the Soviet Union

56:53 – Nuclear power phase out + more info

56:55 – France as an outlier in nuclear power + nuclear-powered submarines

57:49 – Nuclear power and the electricity demands of AI

1:01:55 – UK LNG imports

1:02:00 – Ansar Allah (Houthis) + attack on Israel

1:04:17 – There are *approx 12,100 nuclear warheads in the world

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