Daniel Schmachtenberger: “Bend Not Break Part 5: Criteria and Categories for Response”

In this episode, Nate welcomes back macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen to unpack the financial bind facing the United States and the broader Global economy, a bind that leaves governments with two options: print or default (or some combination of the two).

In this episode, Nate is joined by Nigerian bat biologist Iroro Tanshi to explore how the rediscovery of a bat species unseen in Nigeria for 45 years – and a wildfire that destroyed half its habitat just days later – launched a community-led fire prevention program. Iroro explains how listening to farmers, who no longer knew when it was safe to burn their fields, led to a simple fire danger warning system that local leaders then backed with their own bylaws, directly addressing tragedy-of-the-commons dynamics. She also shares what it’s like to navigate conversations about climate and biodiversity with rural Nigerian communities, and how her team is now scaling their fire management solution across the tropics.

In this episode, Nate welcomes back oil market analyst Rory Johnston for an update on how the crisis has evolved since April. Rory explains why diesel is now the epicenter of the crisis, with crack spreads running five to six times their historical norm, driven by both the Iran war and Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries. He also unpacks one of the unexpected moves that lessened the severity of the energy shortage: China’s unprecedented 45% cut in crude imports, which he calls the “Beijing Swing.” Tying these trends together, Rory and Nate explore how soaring shipping costs have fractured a once-global oil market into regional pockets and how the poorest nations are bearing the brunt of demand destruction.