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Ep 54  |  Arthur Berman

Arthur Berman: “Peak Oil – The Hedonic Adjustment”

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Show Summary

On this episode, petroleum geologist Arthur Berman returns to unpack the development and drawbacks of ‘peak oil’. Art explains how our institutions have redefined what is considered oil, which has created an illusion of constantly growing oil production. The reality is that – circa 2023 – fully 40% of what is called oil is comprised of things that are ‘not oil’. What does this imply for global peak oil? Is peak oil, an observation which has been around for decades and repeatedly proven ‘wrong’, even relevant today? Is a specific ‘peak’ date even helpful or should we be focusing on the logical implications of a declining primary resource for global economies? And then, what should we do?

About Arthur Berman

Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.

In French, we have a motto that says that a simple drawing is often better than a long explanation. Jean-Marc Jancovici Carbone 4 President

That’s very understandable because with left atmosphere thinking, one of the problems is that you see everything as a series of problems that must have solutions. Iain McGilchrist Neuroscientist and Philosopher

We can’t have hundreds and hundreds of real relationships that are healthy because that requires time and effort and full attention and awareness of being in real relationship and conversation with the other human. Nate Hagens Director of ISEOF

This is the crux of the whole problem. Individual parts of nature are more valuable than the biocomplexity of nature. Thomas Crowther Founder Restor

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

00:40 – Art Berman website, The Oil Drum + TGS Podcast Part 1 and Part 2

04:20 What is peak oil

05:38 Shale plays

07:46 Oil as the master resource

09:43M King Hubbert, Howard Scott

10:53M King Hubbert 1956 speech

11:54 Kjell Aleklett – Resilience

12:29 With no new drilling, all the current producing wells are declining at 6% per year *More recently updated to 8%*

13:19 Nate’s PhD writing

15:52 Low of 5% of energy going back to the energy production sector in 1999, now up to 10%+ (Figure 1)

16:00Oil Drum Article of Modeling Oil Depletion Using EIA data

18:42 – Slide #1

18:45Peak oil likely to have been November 2018

19:14$-37/per barrel oil prices

19:53 – Slide #1

21:32USA surpassing 2018 peaks

21:40 – Slide #2

22:26 – Slide #3

23:08 How is natural gas different from oil/petroleum

23:39Refinery gain 

23:51 – Slide #3

24:10 40% of what the IEA/EIA calls oil is not actually oil

25:20Large component of natural gas plant liquids is ethane, which is used to make baggies

26:25Oil is extremely energy dense, natural gas is 33% less energy dense than oil

27:36 Hedonic Adjustment

27:54NGL is 30% of what we consider oil production in the US

28:26 – Slide #8

28:35Natural gas liquefaction during extraction

29:09LNG process

31:57Different components of natural gas

32:24Natural Gas Plant Liquids

34:28 The hardest part of find new oil is the deepness – and correlating increasing heat/pressure

35:30 Types of crude oil and their qualities

36:36 – Slide #9

39:44What is NGPL used for

40:40 – Slide #13

40:50 Half the world oil consumption has been used since 1990

42:45The US oil supply is extremely light

42:55The US has reduced oil imports over last decades

43:07The US exports 3 million barrels, and imports 6-7 million barrels of heavy oil

43:50Diesel can have a greater energy content than Crude oil

44:08– Slide #11

46:00Ethanol is 40% of the heat content of that of Crude oil

48:52 – Slide #10

50:20 – Slide #14

51:20 Ethanol

52:38Nate’s piece in Nature Science journal (2005)

53:30Ethanol mixed fuels don’t take your car as far

54:56 – Slide #8

1:02:20Peak demand

1:03:31 Shell launched an investigation of M King Hubbert to prove him wrong

1:03:52Malthus, Paul Ehrlich (TGS Episode)

1:06:47Almost all of the fossil energy alternatives make electricity, which is limited in function

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The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future (ISEOF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit corporation, founded in 2008, that conducts research and educates the public about energy issues and their impact on society.

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