Ep 55 | Erica Thompson
Erica Thompson: “Models, The Hawkmoth Effect, and the Future”
Show Summary
On this episode, Dr. Erica Thompson joins Nate to unpack her recent book Escape From Model Land. Erica explores the pitfalls of conventional science models and the opportunities by which models can augment our imagination and collective understanding. What is a model, and how do our worldviews shape the way they’re made – and conversely, how do they shape our worldviews? How can we rethink and bring creativity into something as scientific as modeling to create maps of the future that are both more accurate and – most importantly – more helpful to planning responses?
About Erica Thompson
Dr Erica Thompson is a Senior Policy Fellow at the LSE Data Science Institute, where she works on a broad programme of theoretical and practical research about mathematical models, their use, interpretation and social context. She recently authored Escape From Model Land (Basic Books, 2022) which explores the opportunities and challenges of augmenting our imagination about the future with mathematical tools.
In French, we have a motto that says that a simple drawing is often better than a long explanation. Jean-Marc Jancovici Carbone 4 President
That’s very understandable because with left atmosphere thinking, one of the problems is that you see everything as a series of problems that must have solutions. Iain McGilchrist Neuroscientist and Philosopher
We can’t have hundreds and hundreds of real relationships that are healthy because that requires time and effort and full attention and awareness of being in real relationship and conversation with the other human. Nate Hagens Director of ISEOF
This is the crux of the whole problem. Individual parts of nature are more valuable than the biocomplexity of nature. Thomas Crowther Founder Restor
Show Notes & Links to Learn More
00:35 – Erica Thompson Works + Info + Escape From Model Land
02:45 – Disagreements in past climate models
07:05 – What is a model?
08:39 – Donella Meadows, Limits to Growth, Club of Rome
08:50 – Black Box Model vs a Systems Model
12:01 – Known Unknowns
13:15 – IPCC and their categorizing of confidence intervals
18:26 – The Butterfly Effect, The Hawkmoth Effect
20:41 – Hawk moths (Death’s-head Hawk moth, Poplar Hawk moth)
24:55 – William Nordhaus
26:35 – What would happen at 4 degrees warming
27:40 – Herman Daly + TGS Episode
29:59 – James Hansen, Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Climate Response Time
35:55 – We value identity more than truth
36:45 – Americans’ trust in scientists
40:55 – Risks of Geoengineering
41:55 – Carbon Dioxide removal
43:45 – An infinite supply of clean energy wouldn’t solve the root of the problem
44:40 – IPCC Working Groups
45:40 – Nora Bateson + TGS Podcast + Frankly Episode
45:50 – Gregory Bateson
45:52 – Warm Data
53:14 – Big 5 Personality Traits
54:30 – Kim Stanley Robinson, Ministry for the Future
1:02:08 – Effective Altruism
1:06:48 – Importance of common purpose and erosion of it
1:08:44 – Change in attitude towards climate and environmental issues over the last decade
1:09:30 – Greta Thunberg
