Social Overshoot? Dunbar’s Number, Real Relationships, and Musical Chairs

This week, Nate explores the shifting rules of human civilization as society moves from the upslope to the downslope of the Carbon Pulse. The conditions of abundant fossil energy that have rewarded growth, scale, specialization, debt, and a relentless pursuit of efficiency are changing, and the systems that once thrived by consuming surplus may soon only survive by conserving it.

This week, Nate offers a reflection on the U.S. midterm elections, separating the relief of a clear outcome from the deeper questions that remain unsolved. He considers what has changed politically and what hasn’t through a transpartisan lens, highlighting a growing disconnect between political institutions and the biophysical reality shaping our future. While the election has changed the occupants of some government positions, the Carbon Pulse continues, planetary boundaries remain in overshoot, and the global economic Superorganism carries on at its established pace.

In this week’s Frankly, Nate examines the possibility that global economic growth is approaching its limits, reframing it as a historically unusual period in human history enabled by an extraordinary inheritance of fossil fuels. By tracing the relationship between economic output and the energy, materials, and ecological systems that sustain it, Nate uncovers how financial markets, debt, and technological innovation can obscure the physical constraints beneath economic activity, allowing financial claims to expand even as the underlying stocks and flows become harder to access. He outlines seven potential pathways to the end of growth, including how things like geopolitical conflict, social unrest, ecological degradation, catastrophic external events, and cascading systemic failures could expose the fragility of an increasingly interconnected global economy.