Reality Roundtable 21
Arms Race or the Human Race? Governance in the Age of AI, Nuclear Threats, and Geopolitical Brinkmanship
Description
Humans have shaped the world more than any other species in existence, largely due to our ability to coordinate and work together as a unit – in other words, to govern ourselves. This means that, while human societies are at the center of the many crises we face today, we are also the key to navigating through them safely. But this is only possible if we’re able to hold the foundations of our governance together: communication, agency, and remembering our shared humanity. What is the current state of our ability to do this, and what policy mechanisms and agreements are needed to navigate the turbulent decades to come?
In this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by geopolitical risk experts Mark Medish and Chuck Watson to discuss the increasing strain being placed on human governance as a result of escalating conflicts between nations and state leaders. Together, they delve into the intricate foundations of our modern governing structures and why it is critical that we reinforce existing international treaties and agreements in order to avoid the worst outcomes for all of humanity. Mark and Chuck also discuss the history of nuclear arms control – including the upcoming expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) – and how artificial intelligence threatens to disturb the tenuous peace built in the 20th century. Ultimately, they emphasize the need to renew public awareness and education on the importance of governance and the need for our leadership to engage in diplomatic negotiations in an increasingly complex world.
Despite the media’s focus on laws, regulations, and technology, why do people and our shared humanity still lay at the center of good governance and decision making? Where are our current leaders failing us, and does the average citizen still hold agency to influence the trajectory of global events? Lastly, what do we risk by abandoning trust in our fellow citizens and nations, and what opportunities are still available to rebuild our confidence in each other?
About Mark Medish
Mark Medish has over 30 years of professional experience in policy, law, finance, and strategic communications. Medish served at The White House as a Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director on the National Security Council, as well as at the U.S. Treasury as Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Affairs. He also worked in senior positions at the State Department (USAID) and the United Nations (UNDP). Medish is Vice Chair of Project Associates Ltd., a London headquartered strategic consultancy with offices in Europe, the Middle East, East Africa, and the U.S. He is also a founding partner of the Mosaiq Law Group in Washington, D.C., and a co-founder of Keep Our Republic, a non-profit civic education organization promoting democratic governance and rule of law.
His previous business leadership posts include: president of The Messina Group, a boutique strategic communications firm based in Washington, D.C.; president of the international division of Guggenheim Partners, an asset management company headquartered in Chicago; and equity partner at Akin Gump, an international law firm where he led the sovereign advisory practice. He worked as a vice president for studies and senior scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He was a visiting research fellow at The Japan Institute of International Affairs in Tokyo. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is also a board member of the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University and the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM) in Vienna.
About Chuck Watson
Chuck Watson has had a long career in international development projects as well as military and intelligence work, with a specialty in natural and human-made disaster modeling. He worked for the US Air Force, was an attaché to US Ambassadors to the Middle East Robert McFarland and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.
Chuck has worked as an advisor to governments for over four decades with a particular emphasis on big data, open source intelligence, with an emphasis on the Soviet Union and Russia. Chuck is also the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction.
Show Notes & Links to Learn More
Download transcriptThe TGS team puts together these brief references and show notes for the learning and convenience of our listeners. However, most of the points made in episodes hold more nuance than one link can address, and we encourage you to dig deeper into any of these topics and come to your own informed conclusions.
00:00 – The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), Feb 2026 Expiration and what comes next
– Mark Medish, Panterra
– Chuck Watson, Enki Research, His blog, Previous TGS Episodes
04:47 – Governance vs. government
05:55 – Information ecosystem
06:05 – Joe Lauria’s exchange with Grok
08:20 – Enforcement mechanisms within international law
08:30 – Government holds the right to use force to enact laws
09:20 – Constitutional Law (U.S.), U.S. Constitution
09:50 – List of International Treaties, UN Charter + UN Treaty Collection
10:25 – Richard Gephardt, TGS Episodes #1 and #148, Quote: “Politics is a substitute for violence”
10:30 – Governance vs. Politics, Rules-based order
11:35 – Court system trust and recognition is declining in U.S.
11:43 – Primer on the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court
12:50 – President Trump’s recent interview with NYT
13:35 – Separation of powers
15:50 – Lawfare
17:47 – Constitutional republic
20:50- Minority of U.S. Congress have technical degrees (most have law degrees)
22:55 – Humans live longer, healthier, and more intelligent than our ancestors
23:40 – Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s The Gulag Archipelago
25:20 – New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), Trump 2026 statement on expiration
28:35 – Election success correlated with narcissism, Dark Triad traits and political success, TGS Reality Roundtable on Dark Triad traits
29:10 – We want leaders who are self-assured and confident (More info)
30:35 – AI Community Debate: Can AI create its own objectives?
31:12 – AI deceptiveness study
31:40 – ELIZA computer program
32:27 – AI liberation narrative, Transhumanism, Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)
33:40 – International conflicts since 2020, since Jan 2026, Venezuela-U.S.: Seizing two shadow fleet tankers
34:40 – Existential deterrence
36:25 – History of International Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, Pershing Missile
37:00 – Russia’s recent use of Oreshnik missile on Ukraine
38:00 – ‘Winnable’ nuclear war
38:30 – John F. Kennedy’s Peace Speech, Limited Test Ban Treaty, Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, Strategic Arms Limitations Talks (SALT) I&II, Treaty on the Non-
Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Strategic Arms Reduction Talks (START), Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty
41:00 – INF Treaty breakthrough: Agreement of onsite inspection
40:35 – U.S. withdrawal from the Treaty on Open Skies
41:55 – Both U.S. political parties have starting pulling back nuclear regulation in the late 90s
42:23 – TGS Episode on new-gen nuclear weapons, W76-2 & B61-13, NUTS vs. MAD
43:00 – The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)
45:20 – Oreshnik missile – Warheads, Mach 10 speeds
46:05 – W76-2 deployment, Naval Weapons Station Earle
47:40 – Preemptive strike
50:00 – Hypersonic weapon, U.S./Yemen aircraft carrier incident (More info)
51:45 – History of New START
53:15 – Sept 2025: President Putin proposes to extend New START by at least a year
53:47 – Updated statements since recording: President Trump wants to build a new agreement after New START expires next month (More info)
54:15 – Maria Zakharova, Russia’s several approaches to Washington to discuss New START
55:00 – China’s recent nuclear strategy publication
56:00 – U.S.-China nuclear relationship
56:55 – Golden Dome
58:40 – Unanswered requests from Russia to U.S. on nuclear
59:50 – Oppenheimer (film), Edward Teller vs. Oppenheimer
1:00:40 – Game Theory
1:02:20 – Summit level meetings between Clinton and Putin
1:04:10 – President Putin’s relationship with Merkel, Atlanticism
1:06:25 – Cuban Missile Crisis
1:08:10 – CNN, Ted Turner, and the commodification of media, The Polarization of News in the U.S.
1:10:20 – Information Burnout, “The medium is the message” – Marshall McLuhan
1:11:20 – We are more polarized than ever before
1:18:50 – “We have guided missiles and misguided men.” – Martin Luther King Jr.
1:18:55 – Worsening U.S.-Russia relationship since the Cold War
1:20:20 – “Hockey diplomacy” during Cold War
1:20:35 – Anastassia Makarieva (TGS #193), Biotic Pump
1:21:10 – “Russians” by Sting
1:21:00 – Weakening of peace movement in the U.S., Political left has become increasingly pro-war, U.S. Representative Luna getting Russian Duma members to visit U.S.
1:22:05 – “All Along the Watchtower” by Bob Dylan
1:24:55 – Going into U.S. Primary season, How to get involved
