Great simplification pulsing lines

Ep 101  |  Arthur Berman: "Shale Oil and the Slurping Sound”

Arthur Berman: “Shale Oil and the Slurping Sound”

Check out this podcast

TGS03 Arthur Berman Cover The Great Simplification

Show Summary

On this episode, Arthur Berman returns to unpack the complexity underpinning the oil trends of the last 75 years and what new data can tell us about availability in the coming years. After decades of declining oil production in the United States, the past decade of rising oil extraction has eased many worries about peak oil. But the past few years of continued growth have been obtained by using “a larger straw”, merely delaying the inevitability of the depletion of a finite resource. Art presents recent data on well productivity in US shale plays indicating we are much closer to ‘the slurping sound’. How does technology hide the declining availability of oil reserves, causing us to extract and use them faster without creating any new resources? Going beyond geology, how do geopolitics, finance, and social opinion affect oil availability? Where do we go when economically viable oil isn’t available anymore – and will we have the prudence to make the cultural shifts necessary before we have no other options? Have we now passed ‘peak oil’?

About Arthur Berman

Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.

In French, we have a motto that says that a simple drawing is often better than a long explanation. Jean-Marc Jancovici Carbone 4 President

That’s very understandable because with left atmosphere thinking, one of the problems is that you see everything as a series of problems that must have solutions. Iain McGilchrist Neuroscientist and Philosopher

We can’t have hundreds and hundreds of real relationships that are healthy because that requires time and effort and full attention and awareness of being in real relationship and conversation with the other human. Nate Hagens Director of ISEOF

This is the crux of the whole problem. Individual parts of nature are more valuable than the biocomplexity of nature. Thomas Crowther Founder Restor

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

Download transcript

00:00 – Arthur Berman info, previous episodes, Art’s slides for this episode

03:30 – What is oil

03:55 – Unconventional oil

04:18 – Products made from a barrel of oil, importance of diesel

04:33 – Refining process

05:03 – Natural Gas Plant Liquids 

07:58 – Peak Oil

08:52 – US is the largest oil producer, all of the growth since 2010 has been mostly due to US production increase

09:22 – Average well in the 1950s produced 150-200 thousand barrels/day, dropped to 20 thousand by 1970

10:21 – Average well production of unconventional wells (Slide 7)

12:23 – US production recent all time high

13:11 – EIA output projection for 2024

14:08 – Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)

18:48 – Reduced investment in oil companies

20:52 – Breakeven costs

22:10 – Shale plays high rate of decline (Slide 8)

25:35 – Alaskan oil production

26:40 – Cantarell: Rise and Fall of Mexico’s Greatest Oil Field

27:05 – Current production is made of 70% tight oil (Slide 2)

27:49 – Commercially available oil reserves

39:02 – OPEC withholding oil to keep the price up

41:15 – Fossil fuel use in war

53:13 – FDR and Saudi Arabia deal

45:50 – Drainage radius of a well, effects of drilling too close together

53:16 – Rig count

57:55 – Increase in Rig Productivity

1:03:58 – Harold Hamm, Bloomberg Interview

1:04:29 – Scott Sheffield, Permian will peak in 5 years

1:08:25 – OPEC Vienna Meeting

1:08:37 – Tug of war between supply and demand on oil price

1:17:41 – United States’ unique resource ownership system

1:18:50 – Arctic drilling potential and barriers

1:26:23 – Helen Thompson + TGS Episode

1:27:17 – ½-⅔ of remaining oil reserve are within a few hundred miles of Israel 

Back to episodes
Will We Artificially Cool the Planet?With Ted ParsonThe Great SimplificationEp 200 | Ted Parson

In this episode, Nate interviews Professor Ted Parson about solar geoengineering (specifically stratospheric aerosol injection) as a potential response to severe climate risks. They explore why humanity may need to consider deliberately cooling Earth by spraying reflective particles in the upper atmosphere, how the technology would work, as well as the risks and enormous governance challenges involved. Ted emphasizes the importance of having these difficult conversations now, so that we’re prepared for the wide range of climate possibilities in the future.

Watch nowNov 12, 2025
Terror Management TheoryWith Sheldon SolomonThe Great SimplificationEp 199 | Sheldon Solomon

Many of us wrestle with the unsettling truth that everyone – including ourselves and those we love – will one day die. Though this awareness is uncomfortable, research suggests that the human capacity to contemplate death is a byproduct of consciousness itself. In fact, our efforts to cope with mortality are at the core of culture, religion, the desire for wealth, and even many of today’s societal crises. How might a deeper understanding of our implicit reactions to mortality help us turn towards responses that are more supportive of our species and planet?

Watch nowOct 29, 2025
Challenging Monopoly PowerWith Stacy MitchellThe Great SimplificationEp 198 | Stacy Mitchell

Monopolistic business practices have been illegal in the United States for more than a century. Yet, monopoly power continues to accelerate in our modern commercial landscape. Large, powerful corporations edge out smaller businesses, often citing scale, “efficiency”, and lower costs as their reasons for success. But looking more closely reveals a reality that is far different. Small businesses are more cost-effective and deliver better results to the people they serve than giant corporations. Furthermore, they form the backbone of engaged and connected communities. So what is actually preventing small businesses (and communities) from flourishing, and what can individuals do today to build economic power in their communities? 

Watch nowOct 22, 2025

Subscribe to our Substack

The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future (ISEOF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit corporation, founded in 2008, that conducts research and educates the public about energy issues and their impact on society.

Support our work
Get in touch
x