Great simplification pulsing lines

Ep 81  |  Roger Pielke Jr

Roger Pielke Jr: “Understanding the Origins of Climate Models”

Check out this podcast

TGS81 Roger Pielke Jr The Great Simplification

Show Summary

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate and policy scientist Roger Pielke Jr. to discuss the progression of climate research and modeling. The climate activist community is based around projections of what a future might look like given the actions of society – an important tool in the push for urgent climate action. Yet, just like with any other model, the assumptions and parameters can greatly shape the outcomes. How has climate science been shaped by previous models and public perception? How did 2Cº come to be our common climate goal post? Are we anticipating the future within the most likely range of possibilities, or are we polarizing ourselves to the extremes of climate denial and climate doom?

About Roger Pielke Jr.

Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. is a professor at the University of Colorado where he teaches environmental science and policy. A lifetime scholar with many interests, Roger researches and writes on subjects from understanding the politicization of science to decision making under uncertainty to policy education for scientists in areas such as climate change, disaster mitigation, and world trade. His most recent book, The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change takes a deeper look at the IPCC and climate science and how it is being interpreted in the media. Roger also oversees a popular Substack – The Honest Broker – where he is experimenting with a new approach to research, writing and public engagement. Roger holds degrees in mathematics, public policy and political science, all from the University of Colorado Boulder.

In French, we have a motto that says that a simple drawing is often better than a long explanation. Jean-Marc Jancovici Carbone 4 President

That’s very understandable because with left atmosphere thinking, one of the problems is that you see everything as a series of problems that must have solutions. Iain McGilchrist Neuroscientist and Philosopher

We can’t have hundreds and hundreds of real relationships that are healthy because that requires time and effort and full attention and awareness of being in real relationship and conversation with the other human. Nate Hagens Director of ISEOF

This is the crux of the whole problem. Individual parts of nature are more valuable than the biocomplexity of nature. Thomas Crowther Founder Restor

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

00:00 – Roger Pielke Jr. works + info, The Honest Broker, A Primer on Implausible Climate Scenarios

01:47 – IPCC Climate Scenarios

02:01 – Available fossil fuel is over estimated, climate feedbacks are underestimated

06:10 – RCP Scenarios

08:07 – Climate forcing

09:25 – RCP Climate scenarios not evaluated for plausibility or probability

13:05 – Implausibility of RCP 8.5

13:43 – Biden Administration discarded RCP 8.5

15:37 – Uninhabitable Earth

17:15 – Bush administration narrative on Iraq War and effects on credibility

17:42 – Fear and motivation

19:10 – Difference in effects between global average degrees of warming

20:20 – Grand Forks flood

24:21 – Climate Anxiety

24:45 – Population Crisis

24:58 – One Child Policy, Forced Sterilizations 

26:05 – Sensationalized studies are more likely to be published

26:35 – David Wallace-Wells, Greta Thunberg

29:35 – How did 2 degrees get decided as a target

31:25 – Frankly on Probability and Perception

37:21 – Deaths related to extreme weather events have dropped by 2-3 magnitudes

43:24 – Future population growth estimates

48:35 – WICKED problems

51:26 – Academic Tenure

55:18 – Walter Lippmann

57:34 – If only the US took perfect climate action, it would have minimal effects on the climate

58:30 – US polarization on climate

1:01:27 – Steve Rayner

1:03:05 – Lightbulb war

1:03:59 – Perfluorocarbons

1:06:45 – Emergent phenomenon

1:06:55 – Flood in Bangkok and car supply chain disruptions

1:10:03 – John Dewey

1:11:50 – Factfulness

1:13:50 – UN Announcement that we passed 8 billion people

Download transcript
Back to episodes
The Forgotten Skills of Dying and Grieving WellWith Stephen JenkinsonThe Great SimplificationEp 190 | Stephen Jenkinson

In Western culture, topics surrounding death and dying are often considered taboo and are generally avoided in everyday conversations. But this reluctance to fully acknowledge and integrate death as a natural part of the human experience has rendered us less able to cope with the end of life and less prepared to show up for ourselves and the people around us as we inevitably navigate loss. But what if a more skillful engagement with death and grief could actually offer us a more mindful approach to living?

Watch nowAug 13, 2025
The Silent CollapseWith Oliver MilmanThe Great SimplificationEp 189 | Oliver Milman

Insects, bugs, creepy-crawlies – these small animals are often considered a nuisance (or worse) by humanity, bringing up an ongoing desire to kill or mitigate these “pests” that plague our backyards, homes, and gardens. But we’re beginning to see that, despite our cultural misconceptions, insects are actually at the foundation of our biosphere, food supply, and nearly every life process on Earth. This makes recent reports of rapidly declining insect populations all the more troubling – but can we recognize the vital importance of insects and reverse the harm we’ve done before it’s too late?

Watch nowAug 6, 2025
Nothing Can Stop This TrainWith Lyn AldenThe Great SimplificationEp 188 | Lyn Alden

Money, debt, and finance shape the lives of everyone globally, including through the policies and actions of national central banks – yet even those who are well-versed in these subjects often miss the full scope of these intricate relationships. For the average person, headlines about mounting government debt and surging interest rates often feel like a confusing and concerning trend. What can we learn from historical cycles, global energy dynamics, and the differing fiscal strategies of nations about the trajectory of the world economy?

Watch nowJul 30, 2025

Subscribe to our Substack

Please enable JavaScript in your browser to complete this form.

The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future (ISEOF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit corporation, founded in 2008, that conducts research and educates the public about energy issues and their impact on society.

Support our work
Get in touch
x