"Electric Vehicles": Arthur Berman, Simon Michaux & Pedro Prieto
Reality Roundtable #01
June 11th, 2023
(Conversation recorded on April 23rd, 2023)
Show Summary
On this inaugural episode of Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by Art Berman, Simon Michaux, and Pedro Prieto to discuss the viability of scaling electric vehicles and what role they could play in the future. Electric vehicles have become increasingly more popular in recent years, and in tandem more polarizing and controversial. Art, Simon, Pedro, and Nate join together for a multi-faceted conversation jam packed with expertise and insight about the reality of EVs. Are plans for dramatically increasing the production of electric vehicles as a replacement for internal combustion vehicles materially, economically, or even infrastructurally possible? Are current EV initiatives taking a science-based systems approach towards this massive economic, environmental, and cultural shift or are they rooted in energy blindness?
About Arthur Berman:
Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector.
About Pedro Prieto:
Pedro is the vice president of the Asociación para el Estudio de los Recursos Energéticos (AEREN). AEREN is an open space for debate and communications on energy issues and their role in demography, development, economy and ecology. Pedro was a member of the board at ASPO International with AEREN representing ASPO in Spain. Since 2004, Pedro has led several solar photovoltaic projects in Spain, a leading world country in solar PV penetration. Pedro co-authored Spain's Photovoltaic Revolution. The Energy Return on Investment, that challenged the conventional energy boundaries considered up to the moment for calculations.
About Simon Michaux:
Dr. Simon Michaux is an Associate Professor of Geometallurgy at the Geological Survey of Finland. He has a PhD in mining engineering. Dr. Michaux’s long-term work is on societal transformation toward a circular economy.
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Show Notes & Links to Learn More:
00:30 - Arthur Berman (TGS Episodes part 1, 2, & 3) + Slides, Pedro Prieto + Slides, and Simon Michaux (TGS Episodes Part 1 & 2) + Slides
01:39 - Olivia Lazard + TGS Episode
04:02 - Simon’s full report
07:03 - 2016 Paris Accords
10:30 - Seasonal variation in solar power
10:55 - Balancing power systems
13:28 - Hydrogen Fuel Cells
16:50 - Hydrogen is an energy carrier
16:55 - Making Hydrogen
19:05 - German Electric Network already experiencing stress
20:24 - Energy stability 99% correlated with GDP (Section 1.2)
23:51 - Swedish looking at how to produce steel from hydrogen fuel
24:28 - Making a silicon wafer for a solar panel
25:55 - Recycling metals
26:12 - Number of electric vehicles
26:25 - Renewables are 5% of the primary energy portfolio
27:44 - Collection is the biggest barrier to consistent, effective recycling
30:57 - Substitution
32:49 - James Howard Kunstler
33:10 - Average car in the US carrier 1.2 people, or 1.9 people in the European Union
33:55 - Urban Sprawl
34:06 - 1.2 billion cars and 3 million buses
34:16 - Vehicle per capita by country
34:33 - Every year 40 million new cars enter the streets
34:40 - Total paved roads is about 65 million km, in Spain there is about .5 linear km paved road for 1km2
35:15 - Spain is about the territory and population in California, with 2.5x smaller GDP
35:35 - Spain consumes 58 million tons of oil per year - all imported
37:45 - The ev battery has more plastics than an ICE car, compose 50% of volume but weigh 10% of the weight
38:40 - To recharge an electric fleet in Spain, electricity production would need to increase by 25%
39:40 - 3 million cars sold in Spain, 1.8 were second hand
40:52 - The average life of an electric vehicle is 8 years, and the battery is about half the cost of the vehicle
41:56 - Many cannot afford electric vehicles
42:50 - All the things we get from a barrel of oil
44:25 - 4th year of delay on Tesla semi-truck
45:30 - The price of EV’s over time
45:48 - Solar and wind believed to be the cheapest form of electricity
46:30 - Price of wind energy increasing over the past few years
47:50 - In Saigon city there’s 9 million motorbikes
48:40 - Gun controversy in the US
49:20 - 10-15% of Spain’s GDP is from the automotive industry
50:02 - Marvin Harris Cows, Pigs, Wars, and Witched: The Riddles of Culture
52:30 - Canary Islands and Balearic Island
57:37 - Decarbonization and rematerialization
59:06 - Vehicle miles in the United States per year have been going down
1:00:15 - Passenger cars are about 8% of global emissions
1:03:05 - What makes up a barrel of oil
1:08:25 - Beyond Growth
1:10:18 - Bill Clinton
1:13:18 - Josh Farley + TGS Episode part 1 and 2
1:13:40 - 19 terawatt economy
1:17:00 - Vaclav Smil & 4 pillars of modern civilization
1:18:35 - IEA predicts EVs will account to 12-20% of vehicles by 2050
1:21:28 - In Norway 9 out of 10 vehicles bought are electric
1:21:58 - Norway is very hydro-electric rich and has a foundation of oil from the north sea
1:22:54 - China’s control of mining and manufacture
1:23:20 - Inelastic market
1:24:35 - Peak Demand
1:25:24 - James Stoltenberg
1:25:55 - Electric powered military weaponry
1:27:08 - Correlation of GDP and energy is 99% (figure 2)
1:27:30 - Consumption of oil has not recovered since 2019
1:28:35 - War and Peace
1:32:55 - Lack of reinvestment in oil discovery - and mining
1:35:21 - Peak Oil
1:36:45 - Technology that can reform any type of carbon to another type
1:37:30 - Population of animals have declined 69% since 1970