Great simplification pulsing lines

Ep 164  |  Peter Turchin

Peter Turchin: “The ‘Decline’ of Nations: How Elite Surplus and Inequality Lead to Societal Upheaval”

Check out this podcast

TGS164 Peter Turchin The Great Simplification

Show Summary

The first few months of the new year have brought a cacophony of political news and power plays, bringing with it an uproar of public outrage in the United States and around the world. In the midst of an unprecedented moment in modern history, what can history – and even mathematics – teach us about moments of political unrest and upheaval? 

In this episode, Nate is joined by complexity scientist, Peter Turchin, to discuss his work modeling the key factors that drive patterns of peace, turmoil, and revolution in nations throughout history – and how those connect to the situation in the United States today. Turchin outlines the cyclical nature of ‘elite overproduction’ and its role in political disintegration, emphasizing the importance of economic inequality and elite struggles for control.

How does a declining standard of living, as seen in the U.S. over recent decades, affect a nation’s stability, civic engagement, and levels of violence? In what ways has history been shaped by the ‘wealth pump’ moving economic power towards the hands of the few? Lastly, how can we use these historical lessons to strengthen our communities and act collectively in times of chaos and instability? 

About Peter Turchin

Peter Turchin is a complexity scientist who works in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics. His research interests lie at the intersection of social and cultural evolution,  historical macrosociology, economic history and cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases.

Currently his main research effort is directing the Seshat Databank project (and its offshoot, CrisisDB) which builds and analyzes a massive historical database that enables us to empirically test predictions from theories attempting to explain why and how complex human societies evolved, and why they periodically experience political breakdown. Turchin has authored ten books. His most recent books are End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration and The Great Holocene Transformation (forthcoming).

In French, we have a motto that says that a simple drawing is often better than a long explanation. Jean-Marc Jancovici Carbone 4 President

That’s very understandable because with left atmosphere thinking, one of the problems is that you see everything as a series of problems that must have solutions. Iain McGilchrist Neuroscientist and Philosopher

We can’t have hundreds and hundreds of real relationships that are healthy because that requires time and effort and full attention and awareness of being in real relationship and conversation with the other human. Nate Hagens Director of ISEOF

This is the crux of the whole problem. Individual parts of nature are more valuable than the biocomplexity of nature. Thomas Crowther Founder Restor

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

Download transcript
Back to episodes
Earth Day 2025With Nate HagensThe Great SimplificationEp 187 | Nate Hagens

In this Earth Day presentation, recorded earlier this year, Nate offers nine broad paths for individuals to cultivate resilience in an increasingly uncertain and unstable period of human history. From the intellectual & ecological to the spiritual & psychological, these ideas might be considered waypoints for navigating the human predicament, and -in aggregate - help build 'scout teams' of humans working on the upcoming cultural transition away from infinite material expansion.

Watch nowJul 25, 2025
The Packaging RevolutionWith Wes CarterThe Great SimplificationEp 186 | Wes Carter

Packaging is an unavoidable feature of modern life. It’s so embedded in our products and systems that even the most environmentally-minded consumers struggle to avoid it entirely. Yet packaging accounts for nearly half of all plastic waste, contributing to widespread ecological harm and growing threats to human health – highlighting the urgent need for an overhaul of packaging materials and industry practices. So how are some industry leaders reimagining materials, systems, and supply chains in ways that align with the realities of our finite planet?

Watch nowJul 23, 2025
The Myths Shaping Our EconomiesWith Josh FarleyThe Great SimplificationEp 185 | Josh Farley

Economic theory has come to wield outsized influence over our societal goals, decisions, and policies – often relying on models that claim to optimize how human systems function. Yet the outcomes of our modern economic structures tell a different story: accelerating ecological collapse, widening inequality, declining public health, and increasing social disconnection. What if the foundational principles of mainstream economics are actually built on false assumptions that obscure the realities of our world? 

Watch nowJul 16, 2025

Subscribe to our Substack

Please enable JavaScript in your browser to complete this form.

The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future (ISEOF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit corporation, founded in 2008, that conducts research and educates the public about energy issues and their impact on society.

Support our work
Get in touch
x