#165 | Frankly

Who Won the Election?: The Blue Tsunami and the Superorganism

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Frankly

This week, Nate offers a reflection on the U.S. midterm elections, separating the relief of a clear outcome from the deeper questions that remain unsolved. He considers what has changed politically and what hasn’t through a transpartisan lens, highlighting a growing disconnect between political institutions and the biophysical reality shaping our future. While the election has changed the occupants of some government positions, the Carbon Pulse continues, planetary boundaries remain in overshoot, and the global economic Superorganism carries on at its established pace. 

Nate also explores how the election itself may be revealing a signal that the political system has yet to recognize – rising energy costs, shrinking household surplus, and growing affordability pressures have contributed to electoral losses for both parties. He sees this as evidence of a problem upstream of conventional politics, rooted in the diminishing surplus that once made cheap food, cheap credit, and cheap energy possible. Overall, the essential work remains unchanged: bending instead of breaking, avoiding nuclear war, protecting the remaining biosphere, and cultivating a new cultural sense of the sacred. For Nate, this election is a reprieve and not a resolution. It serves as a reminder that those who disagree politically will still be neighbors through the Great Simplification. 

What happens when the economic promises politicians make collide with the biophysical limits of the systems that sustain them? How can people move beyond political divisions to build the trust and shared purpose needed for the difficult work ahead? And does the electorate’s ability to respond to economic contraction offer evidence that democratic institutions can still recognize systemic signals, even when political leadership cannot?

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

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Grab-and-Go Resources:

New? Start here:

– The Superorganism Explained in 7 Minutes (Frankly #97)

– Ingroup vs. Outgroup (Nate and DJ’s book chapter on our tribal instincts)

From the Archive:

– Somebody’s Gonna Win (Frankly #75)

– Reality Roundtable #10: The Ecology of Communication: Moving Beyond Polarization in Service of Life

– Ep 59: Jonathan Haidt, Social Psychology in an Age of Social Fragmentation

Episode Foundations:

– NBC News Exit Poll, 2026 midterms

– Power Bills, Data Centers Cast Spotlight on Utilities in U.S. Election

– The Perception Gap

Next Steps:

– Check your voter registration status

– Talking Across the Political Divide, Skills for Communicating Across the Political Divide

– The Perception Gap quiz: how well do you know the other side?

– Stages of ego development, How-to guide to vertical development

– Join The Great Simplification community on Hylo

Resources by Timestamp:

00:04 – Nate’s previous election Franklys: 7 Realities: No Matter Who Wins (2022), Somebody’s Gonna Win (2024)

00:16 – Transpartisan view

00:24 – Nate’s four filters for sorting people: Awareness of what’s happening under the headlines, Caring about it, Wide-boundary lens, Intellectual humility

00:55 – Democrats win full control of Congress in the 2026 midterms

01:16 – Hanging chads and the 2000 Florida recount

01:53 – What didn’t change: Carbon Pulse, Planetary boundaries, Economic Superorganism (with a metabolism) (Nate’s paper)

02:12 – U.S. national debt: $31 trillion in October 2022, $40.5 trillion on 2 November 2026, approaching $41 trillion

02:26 – Debt as monetary claims on future energy and materials

02:40 – Political gridlock: How political gridlock could affect energy and climate policy

03:03 – Partisan gap in views of climate change harms

03:19 – Deeper conversations: What to do as a culture and a species

03:36 – U.S. wars: 2026 Iran war, Russo-Ukrainian war

03:44 – About 6 in 10 voters said taking military action against Iran was the wrong decision

04:07 – Strait of Hormuz, oil and LNG flows, and U.S. maritime security arrangements (Related Frankly), The U.S. dollar’s role in Gulf energy trade

04:39 – European wholesale natural gas prices roughly 10 times U.S. prices (TTF vs. Henry Hub, October 30, 2026)

05:11 – NBC News Exit Poll: Economy the top issue for 39% of voters, 44% said their finances are worse than two years ago vs. 18% better

05:23 – 7 Rungs of a Runaway System, Gasoline prices and presidential approval

05:33 – Inflation and incumbent defeats in 2024

05:45 – Residential electricity prices up more than 10% since 2024, outpacing inflation and rising faster still in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania

05:59 – Voter opposition to AI data centers, Data centers, rising electricity prices, and voter perceptions

06:06 – Voters in nine states pick the regulators overseeing their power bills

06:10 – Energy blindness, Electricity rates on the ballot

06:40 – Related research on the 2007-2008 oil shock

06:48 – Shrinking societal surplus

07:06 – Factors behind historically affordable goods and credit: Energy costs in food production, Gasoline prices, Historically low interest rates

07:38 – Changing rules for culture on the downslope of the Carbon Pulse

08:04 – More than 50 million early votes cast

08:13 – Peaceful transition of power as new Congress takes office January 3, 2027

08:25 – Affective polarization

08:38 – Election stress and anxiety among Americans during the 2026 midterms

08:49 – Trust in the federal government at historic lows in both parties

09:11 – Blue tsunami (wave election)

09:26 – The Real Work: Bending instead of breaking, Avoiding a nuclear war, Protecting what’s left of the biosphere, New cultural sense of the sacred

10:05 – Neighbors across the voting booth during The Great Simplification

10:16 – Related research on the perception gap between parties

10:40 – The Great Simplification community on Hylo

Back to all posts
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