#159 | Frankly

The Real Work: Four Kinds of Work for a Less Catastrophic Future

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This week, Nate zooms out from recent headlines about climbing diesel prices, a thinning U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and inflationary bond markets to ask the deeper question: what is the real work that’s required of us as the systems that underpin modern life begin to buckle? He draws on decades of tracing the links between energy, ecology, and economy to argue that our response to the predicament is not necessarily to prevent the inevitable economic deflation, but to begin to shape how society moves through it.

From this premise, Nate outlines four areas of intervention that he feels are underattended, given the scale of what’s coming. He calls attention to how we can help communities bend and not break as supply chains strain under pressure, and the ways we might shepherd ecosystems and species through this bottleneck of humanity’s own making. He describes the sobering work of steering nations away from nuclear catastrophe when the proliferation fears that once restrained global powers have faded. Finally, he shows that underlying it all is the slower, generational project of recovering a sense of the sacred in a culture that has learned to measure everything in dollars. Woven through these areas of “real” work is the opportunity to rediscover meaning itself – including the idea that a life well spent is one oriented toward sustaining and enriching life beyond ourselves. 

Why should we view what we’re facing as a predicament to mitigate and not a problem to solve? What would it take for society to absorb systemic shocks without fracturing the social bonds that hold it together? And in a culture built on extraction and convenience, what would it mean to reestablish a sense of the sacred in our relationship with the living world?

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

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The TGS team puts together these brief references and show notes for the learning and convenience of our listeners. However, most of the points made in episodes hold more nuance than one link can address, and we encourage you to dig deeper into any of these topics and come to your own informed conclusions.

 

New? Start here:

–   The Great Simplification (32-minute film)

–   The Superorganism Explained in 7 Minutes (Frankly #97)

From the Archive:

–   The Great Simplification Ep 222: Brett KenCairn on regenerating living systems

–   The Great Simplification Ep 17: Chuck Watson on nuclear war risk

–   Frankly #151 | Protect the Irreversible

Episode Foundations:

–   Reality Blind Vol. 1: Energy Part 8, The Carbon Pulse

–   Federation of American Scientists, Status of World Nuclear Forces

–   Global food insecurity and famine from nuclear war soot injection

Next Steps:

–   Localization Action Guide

–   Community Resilience Toolkits

–   Campaign to abolish nuclear weapons

–   Restoration Resource Center

Resources by Timestamp:

00:03 – Saudi oil export capacity, Ansar Allah attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, Saudi crude exports down 59% since the war with Iran began

00:19 – U.S. diesel prices, Weekly U.S. No. 2 diesel retail prices since 1994, Heating oil/crude spread vs. U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (Bloomberg)

00:26 – Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest level in over 40 years, SPR crude stocks since 1977

00:33 – Global bond yields breaking out, Inflation expectations, Global 10-year government bond yields at multi-decade highs

00:39 – Purchase limits on motor oil

01:26 – Energy blindness

01:56 – Cargo cult thinking, Techno-optimism

02:28 – Predicament rather than a problem (Frankly 158)

02:52 – The Great Simplification

03:18 – Humans as an apex predator, Ultrasociality

03:26 – Social hierarchy, Agricultural surplus

03:33 – Mining historic stocks of fossil fuels, Non-renewable mineral depletion

03:45 – Fossil armies / Energy slaves

03:52 – Complex societies (The Great Simplification Ep highlighting such)

04:05 – Financial claims exceeding biophysical reality

04:18 – Deflationary depression

04:34 – Wile E. Coyote moment

04:44 – Currency crises, Real versus nominal gross domestic product

05:12 – Too big to save

05:19 – Wall Street Crash of 1929, Great Depression

05:27 – Bend rather than break: Community resilience, Continuation of social contracts, Societal collapse

05:54 – Haircut on financial claims

06:02 – 2008 global financial crisis, March 2020 market crash, GDP implicit price deflator in 2008 and 2020

06:12 – Central banks as buyer of last resort, Too big to fail guarantees, Artificially low interest rates

06:38 – Ten-thousand-mile supply chains, Letters of credit (Nate and DJ’s book covering such)

07:26 – Submarine communications cables, Imported surgical gloves, Fertilizer exports from Trinidad and Tobago, *33,248 items in the average U.S. supermarket

07:53 – Relocalized and re-regionalized supply chains

08:09 – Expanding social capital where you live

08:25 – Community and watershed scenario planning

08:42 – Goldilocks technology, Preliminary Checklist

08:52 – Sodium-ion batteries, Lithium-ion batteries

09:02 – Repairability and local maintenance, Just-in-time supply chains

09:09 – Overton window

09:58 – Agency and creativity instead of panic (Frankly on agency)

10:14 – Avoiding World War III, Strategic nuclear exchange (The Great Simplification Ep on nuclear war)

10:36 – Energy descent and Resource conflict

11:03 – Nine nuclear-armed states holding over 12,000 warheads

11:46 – Nuclear disarmament campaigning

12:18 – Grassroots anti-nuclear movements, Nuclear arms reduction treaties, Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

12:40 – Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Nuclear holocaust as a movie trope

13:08 – Nuclear deterrence, Mutual assured destruction

13:18 – Launch-on-warning decision windows

13:26 – Nuclear winter, Nuclear famine

13:44 – Artificial intelligence in nuclear command and control

14:08 – Nuclear close calls averted by individual refusal, Stanislav Petrov

15:12 – Global governance, Game theory, Resource depletion, Global heating

16:26 – The bottlenecks of the 21st century, Midwifing the biosphere

16:58 – Ocean acidification, Species extinction rates

17:28 – The planet will be fine argument

17:50 – Biodiversity loss, Critically endangered great apes

18:04 – Toxic slime making a comeback, Jellyfish blooms

18:34 – Contingency in evolution

18:44 – Peter Ward (The Great Simplification appearance), Earth’s remaining window for complex life, Earth’s Clock of Life

18:56 – Homo floresiensis, Insular dwarfism

19:12 – Rare Earth hypothesis

19:28 – Anthropic principle, Survivorship bias

20:06 – Ecological restoration, Regenerating living systems

20:19 – Brett KenCairn (The Great Simplification appearance)

20:30 – Re-imbuing a sense of the sacred, Web of life

21:18 – Non-substitutable natural capital (Frankly on protecting the irreversible)

21:33 – Dawn chorus, Unbroken lineage from the last universal common ancestor

21:49 – Indigenous relational worldviews

22:00 – Instrumental psychopathic selection, Greg Elliott (The Great Simplification appearance)

22:14 – Charles Eisenstein, Interbeing (The Great Simplification appearance)

22:24 – Supernormal stimuli, Desertification

22:44 – Ecological grief (The Great Simplification Ep 167)

23:05 – Burning the Carbon Pulse, Global population growth past eight billion

23:40 – Initiation rites, Rite of passage, Vision quest, Bill Plotkin (The Great Simplification appearance)

24:06 – Species-level rite of passage

24:12 – Gratitude, Awe, Reciprocity with the living world

24:24 – Cathedral thinking

25:36 – AI alignment risk (The Great Simplification appearance), Existential risk, Metacrisis

26:12 – Corporations as the original misaligned artificial intelligence

26:30 – Economic superorganism

26:50 – Tragedy of the commons, Multipolar trap

27:04 – Corporate personhood in the United States

27:48 – The more-than-human predicament

28:18 – Meaning of life, Competition, accumulation and conspicuous consumption

29:20 – *Hottest year on record, One of the coolest years of the rest of our lives, Projected warming under current policies

29:34 – Holocene climate stability, Disruption of seasonal rhythms

30:04 – The value-action gap

30:18 – Peak of material wealth and energy privilege

30:48 – Vanessa Andreotti (The Great Simplification appearance), Hospicing Modernity, Tom Murphy (The Great Simplification appearance), Metastatic Modernity

31:14 – *More than 150,000 commercial flights on a single day

31:32 – Regulating the stress response, Increasing community participation and membership

32:20 – Gandalf (referenced quote)

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